2025 JOHN DEERE CLASSIC
This week, we head to Silvis, Illinois, and TPC Deere Run for the John Deere Classic.
The John Deere Classic is a regular stop on the PGA tour, first played in 1974 and held annually since then.
THE FIELD
156 PLAYERS
CUT: TOP 65 & TIES
DEFENDING CHAMPION: DAVIS THOMPSON
JOHN DEERE CLASSIC WINNERS & SCORE
2024: Davis Thompson, 28 under par.
2023: Sepp Straka, 21 under par.
2022: JT Poston, 21 under par.
2021: Lucas Glover, 19 under par.
2020: Cancelled, COVID19.
2019: Dylan Frittelli, 21 under par.
2018: Michael Kim, 27 under par.
2107: Bryson DeChambeau, 18 under par.
2016: Ryan Moore, 22 under par.
2015: Jordan Spieth, 20 under par.
TEE TIMES
THE COURSE
Course: TPC Deere Run
Location: Silvis, Illinois
Designer: D.A. Weibring (1999) PGA Tour renovation in 2006
Length: Par 71; 7,268 yards
Hazards: 76 Sand bunkers, 3 holes with water hazards
Fairways: Bent Grass (Average Fairway width 33 yards)
Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass (2.5-4 inches deep)
Greens: Bent Grass (Average green size 5,500sq.Ft)
Comp Courses: TPC River Highlands, Detroit Golf Club, Sedgefield Country Club.
Key Challenges
1. Penal Rough:
The course features thick, 4-inch Kentucky Bluegrass rough in places, which ranks among the most penal on the PGA Tour. Missing fairways significantly increases expected scores by nearly half a stroke, punishing inaccurate drives and requiring precise shot placement.
2. Approach Play and Proximity:
Success at TPC Deere Run heavily relies on strong iron play, particularly from 125–175 yards. The course’s smaller greens (average 5,500 sq.ft.) demand accuracy, with top finishers consistently excelling in strokes gained on approach shots. Players need to hit greens in regulation (80% from the fairway) to capitalize on birdie opportunities.
3. Strategic Layout and Hazards:
Designed by D.A. Weibring, the par-71, 7,258-yard course incorporates rolling terrain, elevation changes, and strategically placed bunkers, water hazards (three holes), and trees. Doglegs and directional changes require thoughtful course management, especially on holes like the 485-yard par-4 9th, where tight fairways and rolling terrain make par difficult.
4. Putting on Bentgrass Greens:
The receptive bentgrass greens reward proficient putters, especially those with strong recent form or streaky putting on similar surfaces. Three-putt avoidance and capitalizing on birdie chances are critical for low scores.
5. Specific Hole Challenges:
Hole 9 (485-yard par-4): A long, tight fairway with trees and rolling terrain makes reaching the green in regulation tough, often leading to bogeys.
Hole 16 (158-yard par-3): The signature hole, with a hilltop green guarded by bunkers and the Rock River on the left, requires precise club selection to avoid trouble.
Hole 4 (448-yard par-4): A dogleg with a large tree in the fairway forces strategic tee shots, and the infinity-edge green with bunkers demands accurate approaches.
6. Scoring Pressure:
While TPC Deere Run allows low scores (average winning score around -20 since 2000), the pressure to make birdies is intense due to the course’s relative ease and generous fairways. Players must balance aggression with precision to avoid mistakes that can negate birdie runs.
THE STATS
I build my models using FANTASYNATIONAL.COM Here are the stats I’m using this week.
SG APPROACH
SG PUTTING BENT GRASS
BIRDIES OR BETTER GAINED
SG APPROACH PROXIMITY 100-175 YARDS
PAR4’s GAINED 400-450 YARDS
SG PUTTING 5-10ft
SG T2G
WEATHER
Thursday (Round 1): Expect warm, sunny conditions with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Winds will be light to moderate from the west at 5–10 mph, with minimal rain chances during the day. A slight chance of overnight showers, but no significant disruptions are anticipated.
Friday (Round 2): Similar to Thursday, with temperatures peaking in the low 90s and mostly sunny skies. Winds may increase slightly to 8–15 mph from the northwest, but rain chances remain low (around 20%). The course should play firm and fast due to dry conditions.p
Saturday (Round 3): A shift is expected as a weather system could bring increased winds (10–18 mph) and a higher chance of rain (up to 50%) by evening. There’s potential for storms, which could soften the greens and affect play, though the course’s birdie-friendly nature should still allow for low scoring.
Sunday (Round 4): The forecast suggests a 50% chance of rain, particularly in the morning, with temperatures in the low to mid-80s. Winds are expected at 10–18 mph. Rain may soften the course further, potentially leading to even lower scores, as seen in past tournaments. Tee times were adjusted in 2024 due to similar weather threats, so similar changes could occur if storms persist.
BETS
JASON DAY (PADDYPOWER) 25/1: - Day’s experience and ability to go low make him a strong contender, especially in a weaker field. His T-23 finish at the 2024 John Deere Classic suggests moderate course history, but his improved approach play in 2025 could elevate his chances. Day has been consistent this season and comes to TPC Deere Run on the back of a T4 at the Travelers Championship. Day’s wedge play (top 25 in strokes gained: approach) and putting (2nd in approach putt performance) suit the birdie-fest nature.
MICHAEL THORBJORNSEN (PADDY POWER EW) 33/1: - Thorbjornsen ranks highly in driving distance (top 10 on TOUR) and excels in Par-5 efficiency (550-600 yards), crucial for TPC Deere Run’s scoring opportunities. He’s also shown elite short-game numbers, ranking top 10 in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and Putting at the Rocket Classic. His ball-striking and approach play are trending upward, with a T-2 in Par-4 scoring average. He has history here, finishing T-17 in 2023 and T-2 in 2024, demonstrating a strong affinity for the course.
RYAN GERARD (PADDYPOWER EW) 45/1: - Gerard has shown flashes of potential in 2025, with three top-20 finishes on the PGA TOUR, including a T-13 at the Rocket Classic last week. His best result this season was a T-4 at the Myrtle Beach Classic, indicating he can compete in birdie-friendly events. Gerard’s game suits TPC Deere Run’s low-scoring nature. He ranks 15th in driving distance (310.2 yards) and 22nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (0.421), which is advantageous on a course with forgiving fairways but penal rough.
NICO ECHAVARRIA (PADDYPOWER EW) 55/1: - Echavarria is coming off a strong T-6 finish at the 2025 Rocket Classic, where he posted four rounds in the 60s, finishing at 20-under-par, just two shots shy of the playoff. He led the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (+4.34) on Sunday, showcasing elite ball-striking. His season includes four top-25 finishes, notably a T-2 at the Sony Open and a win at the 2024 Zozo Championship. Echavarria ranks 7th on the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained: Putting this season, a critical factor for TPC Deere Run’s bentgrass greens, where winners often rely on hot putting to reach scores of 20-under or lower. He’s 36th in birdie-or-better percentage, ideal for the par-71, 7,289-yard course’s low-scoring demands.
THRISTON LAWRENCE (BETWAY EW) 70/1: - Lawrence, a South African with four DP World Tour victories, has shown a resurgence in 2025 after a slow start on the PGA TOUR. He finished T-12 at the U.S. Open, ranking 5th in Strokes Gained: Putting, and followed with a T-8 at the Rocket Classic, where he was 1st in driving accuracy and 7th in SG: Approach-to-Green. These performances indicate he’s finding form, with three top-20s in his last four starts, including a 4th at the DP World Tour’s Soudal Open.Lawrence’s recent metrics are promising for TPC Deere Run’s birdie-fest setup (winning score often ~20-under). He ranks 12th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 7th in SG: Approach at the Rocket Classic, with a 1st-place ranking in driving accuracy. His putting is streaky but potent when hot.
FIRST-ROUND LEADER BETS
WHAT'S IN THE BAG
Rocket Classic - Aldrich Potgieter
Driver: Titleist GT2 (9 degrees)
Fairway Wood: Ping G440 Max (15 degrees)
Utility Iron: Titleist T250 (2-iron)
Irons: Titleist T150 (4-5 irons), Titleist T100 (6-9 irons)
Wedges: Titleist Vokey Design SM10 (46, 52, 54 degrees) Titleist Vokey Design WedgeWorks (60 degrees)
Putter: Scotty Cameron 009M Tour Prototype
Golf Ball: Titleist Pro V1x+
NOTE THATS NOW 5 OF THE LAST 6 ROCKET CLASSIC WINNERS WHO CARRIED A DRIVING IRON!
JOHN DEERE CLASSIC WINNERS SPREADSHEET LINK
NFL INJURY BETTING SPREADSHEET
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NFL INJURY BETTING SPREADSHEET
Thanks for taking the time to read this John Deere Classic article. Good luck this week and please gamble responsibly.
Jack Humphrey
@JH4DOUGHMEDIA